Intro

Lots of people appear to have misconceptions like pondering if x {dollars} circulate into an asset, its market cap will go up by x {dollars}. In reality, it’s not doable to find out how a lot cash has been put in to an asset primarily based on its market cap, or conversely how a lot a market cap will transfer when some sum of money flows into or out of the asset.

Price is solely a operate of the present state of the order books throughout all markets that checklist the asset.

Consider this: let's say the present worth of BTC on Binance is 50k. What does that basically imply? It merely implies that the very most cost-effective restrict promote order at present on their order books is for 50k. That's what worth means definitionally, proper? Price is simply the quantity you need to pay to purchase one thing, so on a CEX worth is all the time merely the present most cost-effective restrict promote.

Example 1: Huge Purchase with No Effect on Market Cap

Let's say that the present worth of BTC on Binance is $50k, and the individual at present keen to promote at 50k (and who’s thus the individual at present defining the Binance worth of BTC) is a whale who’s providing 1000 BTC at 50k. Let's say I’m a whale purchaser and I’m put in a market order for 999 BTC. Well, I’ll find yourself shopping for all 999 from the whale vendor, leaving them with 1 BTC nonetheless on the market at 50k. Since they’re nonetheless promoting 1 BTC at 50k, the value of BTC on Binance remains to be 50k. So I simply purchased practically $50 million value of BTC however the worth (and due to this fact the market cap) didn't transfer by even a penny.

Example 2: Tiny Purchase with Huge Impact on Market Cap

Now think about one other situation. The present worth of BTC on Binance is 50k, as a result of the present most cost-effective restrict promote is somebody promoting 0.01 BTC on the worth of 50k. Let's say I resolve to purchase 0.02 BTC. Well, half of that can come from the individual promoting 0.01 at 50k, which suggests I’ll eat that vendor. The worth of BTC on Binance will now teleport to regardless of the subsequent most cost-effective restrict order is for (that is the mechanism by which worth goes up when folks purchase). Since BTC could be very excessive liquidity (which suggests a lot of restrict orders on the books packed densely throughout the value spectrum), the subsequent most cost-effective restrict promote after the 0.01 BTC at 50k would most likely be at like 50.00001k. But, for the sake of the instance, let's think about a extra excessive situation during which BTC liquidity is extraordinarily low so the subsequent most cost-effective supply after the 0.01 at 50k is at 50.5k, absolutely 1% dearer. Ok, nicely, I find yourself getting 0.01 BTC at 50k, and one other 0.01 BTC at 50.5k, fulfilling my market order and leaving the value of BTC on Binance at 50.5k. So, I’ve spent about $1000, however I moved the value of BTC by 1%, which suggests my buy of $1000 elevated the BTC market cap by practically $10 billion.

Closing Thoughts

Now, I’ve been form of glossing over the truth that for BTC and most cryptos, they’re listed on many unbiased order books directly (one for every CEX), so an asset technically has as many alternative costs as markets that checklist it. So, should you induced an enormous outsized worth spike on Binance for a scorching second on account of an especially illiquid market, you didn't really spike "the" worth of BTC by that quantity, you simply spiked the value of BTC on Binance by that quantity. "The" worth of BTC as reported on one thing like CoinGecko is simply is only a weighted common of the costs in all of the totally different markets. In actuality, all of the issues I’ve described on this submit are occurring independently in each marketplace for one asset like BTC, after which the costs throughout these markets are saved in sync on account of arbitrage.

There are additionally markets that checklist BTC with out utilizing the order e book construction. These are known as DEXes (decentralized exchanges), and are the bread and butter of DeFi. If you'd prefer to know intimately how costs work with DEXes and liquidity swimming pools, you may learn my submit on that subject here. For the context of this submit, although, all you might want to know is that DEX costs are saved in step with CEX costs on account of arbitrage merchants buying and selling liquidity swimming pools in opposition to CEX costs. So, mainly, CEX order books do 99% of the first transferring of costs, after which DEX costs are mainly a mirrored image of CEX costs.

There you’ve got it, that’s how costs really transfer. It's not doable to know the way a lot a given purchase or promote will transfer a market cap except you realize the precise state of the order books at that second on the alternate you're promoting on, in addition to the quantity of arbitrage friction between all markets.